Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Bills (52%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bills (-7.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (44%) · Jets at 49¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Bills52¢Jets48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 44%

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

-$72.31

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills52%

Jets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets4 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares22,839

Combined PnL-$178.8

Bills5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,080

Combined PnL+$106.49

Jets — 44%Bills — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1CTR	Jetsavg 48.9¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	-$65.44	51% 347-336 (683)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Billsavg 50.4¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$90	62% 18-11 (29)
0X 0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018CTR	Jetsavg 50¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$112.5	2% 1-57 (58)
DA darkumbreon88	Billsavg 50¢	$325.94	$335.72	+$9.78	62% 1023-638 (1661)
38 38791873984189	Billsavg 50¢	$241.03	$201.26	+$6.23	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jetsavg 49¢	$55.91	$55.34	-$0.57	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Jetsavg 49¢	$28.42	$28.13	-$0.29	36% 317-553 (870)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 49.8¢	$18.24	$18.66	+$0.42	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Billsavg 51¢	$7.27	$7.34	+$0.07	49% 615-642 (1257)

bands1CTR

Jets

Invested

$7,421.49

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$65.44

Record

51%

347-336 (683)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Bills

Invested

$4,030

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$90

Record

62%

18-11 (29)

0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018CTR

Jets

Invested

$3,750

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

1-57 (58)

darkumbreon88

Bills

Invested

$325.94

Value

$335.72

PnL

+$9.78

Record

62%

1023-638 (1661)

38791873984189

Bills

Invested

$241.03

Value

$201.26

PnL

+$6.23

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$55.91

Value

$55.34

PnL

-$0.57

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

GC-PCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$28.42

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$0.29

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$18.24

Value

$18.66

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Bills

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

615-642 (1257)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.