Spread: Bills (-5.5)

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (50%) · Bills at 67¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Bills67¢Jets33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 50%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$147.26

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 66.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills67%

Jets34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills9 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares11,933

Combined PnL+$483.97

Jets9 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares8,364

Combined PnL-$336.7

Bills — 50%Jets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Billsavg 61¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$220.26	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
CUTJALENHURTS	Billsavg 62¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$169.26	52% 2694-2510 (5204)
RN1	Billsavg 66¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
PU purplegatto	Billsavg 61¢	$842.11	$911.14	+$69.03	68% 2679-1267 (3946)
PR primmCTR	Jetsavg 34¢	$965.94	$894.92	-$71.03	59% 1183-828 (2011)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 39¢	$962.06	$814	-$148.06	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 37.7¢	$602.62	$543.66	-$58.96	51% 572-546 (1118)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jetsavg 38¢	$356.06	$318.58	-$37.48	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
DA darkumbreon88	Billsavg 63¢	$220.25	$230.74	+$10.49	62% 1085-679 (1764)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Billsavg 61.8¢	$188.13	$200.98	+$12.85	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
65 6512395314597884	Billsavg 66¢	$170.79	$170.41	-$0.38	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
BA BayupatiCTR	Jetsavg 37¢	$138.6	$123.61	-$14.98	20% 40-164 (204)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Billsavg 62¢	$23.56	$26.03	+$2.47	50% 658-658 (1316)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jetsavg 37.5¢	$42.42	$24.14	-$4	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jetsavg 37¢	$24.66	$22.66	-$2	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
NO NotJump<$100	Billsavg 66¢	$13.2	$13.2	+$0	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jetsavg 36¢	$1.82	$1.72	-$0.1	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jetsavg 36¢	$1.13	$1.03	-$0.09	48% 3997-4384 (8381)

HomeRunHazard

Bills

Invested

$2,687.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$220.26

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bills

Invested

$1,614.48

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$169.26

Record

52%

2694-2510 (5204)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$1,702.14

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

purplegatto

Bills

Invested

$842.11

Value

$911.14

PnL

+$69.03

Record

68%

2679-1267 (3946)

primmCTR

Jets

Invested

$965.94

Value

$894.92

PnL

-$71.03

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$962.06

Value

$814

PnL

-$148.06

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$602.62

Value

$543.66

PnL

-$58.96

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jets

Invested

$356.06

Value

$318.58

PnL

-$37.48

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

darkumbreon88

Bills

Invested

$220.25

Value

$230.74

PnL

+$10.49

Record

62%

1085-679 (1764)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bills

Invested

$188.13

Value

$200.98

PnL

+$12.85

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

6512395314597884

Bills

Invested

$170.79

Value

$170.41

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

BayupatiCTR

Jets

Invested

$138.6

Value

$123.61

PnL

-$14.98

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

justaluckydude<$100

Bills

Invested

$23.56

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$2.47

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$42.42

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$4

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$24.66

Value

$22.66

PnL

-$2

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

NotJump<$100

Bills

Invested

$13.2

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.