Spread: Bills (-4.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (55%) · Bills at 59¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Bills59¢Jets41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$24.83

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 59¢

-11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills59%

Jets41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,993

Combined PnL+$23.73

Jets5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,510

Combined PnL-$48.56

Bills — 55%Jets — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Billsavg 67¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.95	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
PR primmCTR	Jetsavg 33¢	$881.71	$948.51	+$66.8	59% 1183-828 (2011)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 39¢	$388.39	$259.09	-$129.3	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Jetsavg 28.4¢	$166.04	$172.74	+$6.7	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
OD Oddstorm	Billsavg 61¢	$136.76	$140.16	+$3.4	36% 140-253 (393)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Billsavg 68.7¢	$115.57	$125.72	+$10.15	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 68.7¢	$70.02	$68.79	-$1.24
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 26¢	$45.55	$56.93	+$11.39
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jetsavg 29.4¢	$68.42	$75.26	+$6.84	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Billsavg 63.8¢	$58.88	$65.07	+$6.19	50% 658-658 (1316)
NO NotJump<$100	Billsavg 67¢	$60.7	$44.44	+$2.28	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 67.9¢	$29.44	$25.53	-$1.12	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Jetsavg 28¢	$11.2	$11.6	+$0.4	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455<$100	Billsavg 66¢	$4.12	$4.15	+$0.03	49% 486-502 (988)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$1,735.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.95

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

primmCTR

Jets

Invested

$881.71

Value

$948.51

PnL

+$66.8

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$388.39

Value

$259.09

PnL

-$129.3

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

6512395314597884CTR

Jets

Invested

$166.04

Value

$172.74

PnL

+$6.7

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Oddstorm

Bills

Invested

$136.76

Value

$140.16

PnL

+$3.4

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$115.57

Value

$125.72

PnL

+$10.15

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

Both legs:

Bills$70.0268.7¢-$1.24

Jets$45.5526¢+$11.39

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$68.42

Value

$75.26

PnL

+$6.84

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

justaluckydude<$100

Bills

Invested

$58.88

Value

$65.07

PnL

+$6.19

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

NotJump<$100

Bills

Invested

$60.7

Value

$44.44

PnL

+$2.28

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$29.44

Value

$25.53

PnL

-$1.12

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455<$100

Bills

Invested

$4.12

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bills

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.