Spread: Bills (-14.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (45%) · Jets at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Bills19¢Jets81¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$113.23

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 81¢

+29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills19%

Jets81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,844

Combined PnL+$56.47

Bills6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,641

Combined PnL-$169.7

Jets — 45%Bills — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Jetsavg 60.3¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$167.97	59% 1183-828 (2011)
AN Anon455	Jetsavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$87.11	49% 486-502 (988)
RN1CTR	Billsavg 40¢	$1.0K	$945.38	-$62.93	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
LI LimousinCTR	Billsavg 34¢	$674.67	$536.16	-$138.51	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Jetsavg 69¢	$332.58	$298.84	-$33.74	48% 490-523 (1013)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Billsavg 38¢	$192.43	$189.9	-$2.53	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
nigiri99CTR	Billsavg 31¢	$149.42	$187.98	+$38.56	50% 748-738 (1486)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Billsavg 40¢	$141.3	$102.9	-$38.4	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 40¢	$120	$81	-$39
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 71¢	$21.3	$21.9	+$0.6
JU justaluckydude<$100	Jetsavg 62¢	$55.51	$65.36	+$9.85	50% 658-658 (1316)
NO NotJump<$100	Jetsavg 62¢	$62	$61.5	-$0.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Billsavg 38¢	$34.02	$34.47	+$0.45	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Billsavg 38.6¢	$28.58	$23.84	-$4.74	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

primm

Jets

Invested

$1,952.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$167.97

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

Anon455

Jets

Invested

$1,277.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$87.11

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

RN1CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,008.31

Value

$945.38

PnL

-$62.93

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

LimousinCTR

Bills

Invested

$674.67

Value

$536.16

PnL

-$138.51

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Jets

Invested

$332.58

Value

$298.84

PnL

-$33.74

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bills

Invested

$192.43

Value

$189.9

PnL

-$2.53

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

nigiri99CTR

Bills

Invested

$149.42

Value

$187.98

PnL

+$38.56

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$141.3

Value

$102.9

PnL

-$38.4

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Invested

$55.51

Value

$65.36

PnL

+$9.85

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

NotJump<$100

Jets

Invested

$62

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$34.02

Value

$34.47

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$28.58

Value

$23.84

PnL

-$4.74

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJets 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.