Spread: Bills (-13.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (55%) · Jets at 77¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Bills24¢Jets76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$630.78

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 76.5¢

+35% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills24%

Jets77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,195

Combined PnL+$736.08

Bills5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,682

Combined PnL-$105.3

Jets — 55%Bills — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJets 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Jetsavg 57.7¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$544.43	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Billsavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$12.07	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
BI biying88888	Jetsavg 52¢	$832	$1.0K	+$184	44% 244-314 (558)
AN Anon455CTR	Billsavg 47.8¢	$886.18	$784.22	-$101.96	49% 486-502 (988)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Billsavg 38.4¢	$406.07	$408.16	+$2.09	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 38.4¢	$231.97	$214.55	-$17.42
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 58¢	$174.11	$193.61	+$19.51
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Billsavg 41¢	$700.17	$205.55	-$11.5	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jetsavg 63¢	$137.59	$155.06	+$17.47	46% 653-760 (1413)
BO BoomLaLa	Jetsavg 64¢	$124.16	$116.4	-$7.76	39% 234-370 (604)
38 38791873984189<$100	Jetsavg 62¢	$57.74	$56.23	-$1.51	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Billsavg 41.3¢	$52.28	$45.79	-$0.37	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 59.2¢	$22.5	$22.99	+$0.69
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 41.3¢	$23.86	$22.8	-$1.06
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Billsavg 38.5¢	$68.09	$35.49	-$3.78	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
TA takeormake<$100	Jetsavg 64¢	$8.89	$8.33	-$0.56	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Billsavg 47¢	$0.89	$0.75	-$0.13	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

primm

Jets

Invested

$2,359.41

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$544.43

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,038.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.07

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

biying88888

Jets

Invested

$832

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$184

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

Anon455CTR

Bills

Invested

$886.18

Value

$784.22

PnL

-$101.96

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$406.07

Value

$408.16

PnL

+$2.09

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Bills$231.9738.4¢-$17.42

Jets$174.1158¢+$19.51

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bills

Invested

$700.17

Value

$205.55

PnL

-$11.5

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

omnibus-076daa

Jets

Invested

$137.59

Value

$155.06

PnL

+$17.47

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

BoomLaLa

Jets

Invested

$124.16

Value

$116.4

PnL

-$7.76

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

38791873984189<$100

Jets

Invested

$57.74

Value

$56.23

PnL

-$1.51

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Pan9XARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$52.28

Value

$45.79

PnL

-$0.37

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Both legs:

Jets$22.559.2¢+$0.69

Bills$23.8641.3¢-$1.06

NotJumpCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$68.09

Value

$35.49

PnL

-$3.78

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

takeormake<$100

Jets

Invested

$8.89

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.13

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJets 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.