Spread: Bills (-10.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (61%) · Jets at 53¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 15

Bills48¢Jets52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

-$71.85

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 52.5¢

-5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills48%

Jets53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets11 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares23,384

Combined PnL-$562.18

Bills7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares10,096

Combined PnL+$490.33

Jets — 61%Bills — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (16 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Jetsavg 55.5¢	$7.5K	$7.1K	-$374.57	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 55.5¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$102.98
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 49.7¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	-$271.59
PR primm	Jetsavg 50.2¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$104.43	59% 1183-828 (2011)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Jetsavg 59¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$375	59% 1150-796 (1946)
AltMindCTR	Billsavg 43.2¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$346.26	—
65 6512395314597884	Jetsavg 57.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$105.86	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
AN Anon455	Jetsavg 57.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$94.64	49% 486-502 (988)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Billsavg 42.1¢	$770.1	$887.33	+$117.23	51% 572-546 (1118)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Billsavg 46.3¢	$493.66	$490.04	-$3.62	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
ME metski29	Jetsavg 54¢	$496.11	$473.14	-$22.97	14% 10-63 (73)
38 38791873984189	Jetsavg 56.1¢	$374.3	$311.07	-$12.23	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
JU justaluckydude	Jetsavg 57.9¢	$308.59	$271.73	-$36.86	50% 658-658 (1316)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Billsavg 41¢	$149.65	$167.9	+$18.25	48% 490-523 (1013)
VeryLucky888CTR	Billsavg 40¢	$115.91	$133.29	+$17.39	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
VE Venusian<$100	Jetsavg 46.6¢	$79.39	$87.7	+$8.31	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
PA Pan9X	Jetsavg 52.6¢	$136.64	$35.17	-$18.25	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJump<$100	Jetsavg 56.5¢	$90.31	$28.12	-$9.27	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Billsavg 54¢	$24.39	$20.77	-$3.61	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Billsavg 52¢	$13.44	$11.89	-$1.55	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
LR lryyy<$100	Jetsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.7	+$0.15	46% 998-1194 (2192)

RN1ARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$7,469.1

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$374.57

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Jets$3,793.0255.5¢-$102.98

Bills$3,676.0849.7¢-$271.59

primm

Jets

Invested

$4,149.04

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$104.43

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Jets

Invested

$4,424.99

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$375

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

AltMindCTR

Bills

Invested

$2,794.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$346.26

Record

—

6512395314597884

Jets

Invested

$1,725.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$105.86

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Anon455

Jets

Invested

$1,690.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$94.64

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Bills

Invested

$770.1

Value

$887.33

PnL

+$117.23

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bills

Invested

$493.66

Value

$490.04

PnL

-$3.62

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

metski29

Jets

Invested

$496.11

Value

$473.14

PnL

-$22.97

Record

14%

10-63 (73)

38791873984189

Jets

Invested

$374.3

Value

$311.07

PnL

-$12.23

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

justaluckydude

Jets

Invested

$308.59

Value

$271.73

PnL

-$36.86

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Bills

Invested

$149.65

Value

$167.9

PnL

+$18.25

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bills

Invested

$115.91

Value

$133.29

PnL

+$17.39

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

Venusian<$100

Jets

Invested

$79.39

Value

$87.7

PnL

+$8.31

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Pan9X

Jets

Invested

$136.64

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$18.25

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJump<$100

Jets

Invested

$90.31

Value

$28.12

PnL

-$9.27

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$24.39

Value

$20.77

PnL

-$3.61

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$13.44

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$1.55

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

lryyy<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

53% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (16 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.