Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (95%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 50.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 4.7¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 10

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$703.95

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 4.7¢

-82% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$577.17

Total Shares3,426

Combined PnL-$822.49

Under2 traders

Total Value$728.05

Total Shares764

Combined PnL+$118.54

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 35¢	$1.1K	$502.12	-$625.72	48% 77-85 (162)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 91.3¢	$456.49	$469.99	+$32.75	53% 218-191 (409)
nigiri99	Underavg 65.3¢	$172.27	$258.06	+$85.79	40% 29-43 (72)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 16¢	$102.48	$38.39	-$85.84	26% 122-345 (467)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Overavg 4.3¢	$13	$18	-$6.85	47% 428-476 (904)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28.3¢	$48.2	$10.21	-$43.78	27% 128-352 (480)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$36.16	$6.78	-$29.38	57% 104-80 (184)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$32.58	$1.67	-$30.92	28% 122-309 (431)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$1,127.84

Value

$502.12

PnL

-$625.72

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$456.49

Value

$469.99

PnL

+$32.75

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$172.27

Value

$258.06

PnL

+$85.79

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$102.48

Value

$38.39

PnL

-$85.84

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

cm2897CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13

Value

$18

PnL

-$6.85

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.2

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$43.78

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.16

Value

$6.78

PnL

-$29.38

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.58

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$30.92

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.9%

4.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1590.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

1690.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.