Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 90¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$81.14

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 89.5¢

+51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,439

Combined PnL+$101.78

Over10 traders

Total Value$873.46

Total Shares3,294

Combined PnL-$182.91

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 61.1¢	$779.66	$755.98	-$23.68	56% 267-206 (473)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 58¢	$582.55	$673.35	+$85.78	41% 28-40 (68)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 42¢	$428.4	$336.6	-$86.7	31% 19-43 (62)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$250.06	$217.42	-$32.64	42% 29-40 (69)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 57¢	$139.76	$159	+$18.24	48% 131-141 (272)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$95.76	$77.07	-$18.68	30% 29-67 (96)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$47.16	$67.65	+$20.49	30% 54-125 (179)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$86	$50	-$36	16% 18-93 (111)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$45	$47.5	+$2.5	52% 190-177 (367)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$46.14	$46.14	+$0	28% 119-313 (432)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$39.16	$39.97	+$0.82	53% 274-241 (515)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 11.1¢	$33.86	$29.07	-$4.79	50% 405-412 (817)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$19.68	$15.84	-$3.84	48% 69-75 (144)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$17.64	$13.86	-$3.57	48% 85-92 (177)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 59¢	$9.72	$10.67	+$0.95	49% 183-194 (377)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$779.66

Value

$755.98

PnL

-$23.68

Record

56%

267-206 (473)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$582.55

Value

$673.35

PnL

+$85.78

Record

41%

28-40 (68)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$428.4

Value

$336.6

PnL

-$86.7

Record

31%

19-43 (62)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$250.06

Value

$217.42

PnL

-$32.64

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$139.76

Value

$159

PnL

+$18.24

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.76

Value

$77.07

PnL

-$18.68

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$47.16

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$20.49

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86

Value

$50

PnL

-$36

Record

16%

18-93 (111)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

52%

190-177 (367)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.14

Value

$46.14

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

119-313 (432)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.16

Value

$39.97

PnL

+$0.82

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.86

Value

$29.07

PnL

-$4.79

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.68

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$3.84

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.64

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$3.57

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$9.72

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.