Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 48¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 10

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.1K

Combined PnL

-$100.41

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$43.3K

Total Shares90,825

Combined PnL-$120.9

Under4 traders

Total Value$781.94

Total Shares1,502

Combined PnL+$20.49

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$34.0K	$33.8K	-$245.97	48% 538-589 (1127)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$62.87	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	+$33.86	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	16% 1410-7552 (8962)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$530	$515	-$15
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$480	$485	+$5
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$712.5	$727.5	+$15	58% 22615-16691 (39306)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47.4¢	$592.5	$606.25	+$13.75	57% 22524-16688 (39212)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.9¢	$345.79	$347.64	+$10.44	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
GM gmpm2	Underavg 51.7¢	$233.84	$232.71	+$2.26	54% 386-334 (720)
HE Herdonia	Underavg 49¢	$139.37	$146.48	+$7.11	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 51.9¢	$54.45	$55.12	+$0.67	49% 8562-8739 (17301)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$52.92	$52.38	-$0.54	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.6¢	$15.09	$15.22	+$0.13	52% 27371-24877 (52248)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$34,003.76

Value

$33.8K

PnL

-$245.97

Record

48%

538-589 (1127)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,043

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$62.87

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,168.95

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$33.86

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

WarriorHARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,010

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

16%

1410-7552 (8962)

Both legs:

Invested

$712.5

Value

$727.5

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

22615-16691 (39306)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$592.5

Value

$606.25

PnL

+$13.75

Record

57%

22524-16688 (39212)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$345.79

Value

$347.64

PnL

+$10.44

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$233.84

Value

$232.71

PnL

+$2.26

Record

54%

386-334 (720)

Herdonia

Under

Invested

$139.37

Value

$146.48

PnL

+$7.11

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$54.45

Value

$55.12

PnL

+$0.67

Record

49%

8562-8739 (17301)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.92

Value

$52.38

PnL

-$0.54

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.09

Value

$15.22

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.