Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (85%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 42.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 15¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 10

Over15¢Under85¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$699.81

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 15¢

-71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over15%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares11,470

Combined PnL-$659.07

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,747

Combined PnL-$40.74

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+51 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 52¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$208.28	31% 118-262 (380)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 46.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$71.71	57% 104-80 (184)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 53¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$663.21	16% 38-200 (238)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 38¢	$318.75	$362.5	+$43.75	11% 21-175 (196)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$190	$225	+$35
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$145	$137.5	+$8.75
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 41¢	$286.38	$277.48	-$8.89	30% 29-67 (96)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 38¢	$153.19	$175.79	+$22.6	7% 16-198 (214)
└ Under leg	Underavg 38¢	$104.9	$124.23	+$19.32
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$54.37	$51.56	+$3.28
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$374.61	$166.21	-$208.4	52% 190-177 (367)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$94	$93	-$1	41% 28-40 (68)
CM cm2897<$100	Underavg 54¢	$54	$74	+$19	31% 19-43 (62)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 52¢	$51.48	$72.27	+$20.79	30% 54-125 (179)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$17.56	$22.44	+$4.89	10% 11-104 (115)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$7.28	$7.65	+$0.38	23% 59-197 (256)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 52¢	$0.52	$0.6	+$0.08	23% 49-162 (211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$3,609.66

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$208.28

Record

31%

118-262 (380)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,845.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$71.71

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$1,900

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$663.21

Record

16%

38-200 (238)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$318.75

Value

$362.5

PnL

+$43.75

Record

11%

21-175 (196)

Both legs:

Invested

$286.38

Value

$277.48

PnL

-$8.89

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$153.19

Value

$175.79

PnL

+$22.6

Record

16-198 (214)

Both legs:

Under$104.938¢+$19.32

Over$54.3758¢+$3.28

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$374.61

Value

$166.21

PnL

-$208.4

Record

52%

190-177 (367)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$94

Value

$93

PnL

-$1

Record

41%

28-40 (68)

cm2897<$100

Under

Invested

$54

Value

$74

PnL

+$19

Record

31%

19-43 (62)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$51.48

Value

$72.27

PnL

+$20.79

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.56

Value

$22.44

PnL

+$4.89

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.38

Record

23%

59-197 (256)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.08

Record

23%

49-162 (211)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+51 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.