Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 40.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 73¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 10

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$337.75

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 72.5¢

+62% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,339

Combined PnL+$637.13

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,920

Combined PnL-$299.38

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 40.9¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$272.94	57% 104-80 (184)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.9¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$246.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.7¢	$926.02	$1.4K	+$519.76
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$554.83	53% 274-241 (515)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$37.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$1.4K	$852.17	-$592.7
PR primmARB<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$4.2K	$2.6K	+$672.06	16% 18-93 (111)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.8¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$716.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.8¢	$942.01	$897.99	-$44.02
betdge	Underavg 50¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$647.5	45% 9-11 (20)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$119.89	31% 118-262 (380)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$106.2	48% 131-141 (272)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$832.77	$901.85	+$69.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$433.96	$258.68	-$175.28
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$1.5K	$956.57	-$487.89	48% 85-92 (177)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.8¢	$1.1K	$515.59	-$629.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$299.36	$440.98	+$141.62
38 38791873984189	Underavg 34.2¢	$749.31	$737.91	-$11.41	50% 405-412 (817)
tradecraftCTR	Overavg 47¢	$145.79	$147.35	-$1.55	23% 59-197 (256)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$222.5	$140	-$82.5	41% 28-40 (68)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$171.97	$103.34	-$65.49	30% 54-125 (179)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 42.9¢	$53.74	$35.66	-$18.08	30% 122-284 (406)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 57¢	$26.67	$25.97	-$0.7	52% 190-177 (367)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$26.87	$16.12	-$10.75	28% 119-313 (432)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$15.5	$14.38	-$1.13	42% 29-40 (69)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 35.1¢	$10.43	$12.02	+$1.59	49% 183-194 (377)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 38¢	$11.75	$10.63	-$1.13	48% 69-75 (144)
QI qidao001<$100	Underavg 60¢	$8.04	$4.89	+$1.27	75% 18-6 (24)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,220.19

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$272.94

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

Over$2,294.1640.9¢-$246.82

Under$926.0240.7¢+$519.76

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,237.63

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$554.83

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

Both legs:

Under$1,792.7571¢+$37.88

Over$1,444.8846.6¢-$592.7

primmARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,201.96

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$672.06

Record

16%

18-93 (111)

Both legs:

Under$1,365.7158.8¢+$716.08

Over$942.0128.8¢-$44.02

betdge

Under

Invested

$1,750

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$647.5

Record

45%

9-11 (20)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,931.45

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$119.89

Record

31%

118-262 (380)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,266.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$106.2

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

Both legs:

Under$832.7766¢+$69.08

Over$433.9647.8¢-$175.28

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,497.96

Value

$956.57

PnL

-$487.89

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

Both legs:

Over$1,122.2158.8¢-$629.52

Under$299.3649.6¢+$141.62

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$749.31

Value

$737.91

PnL

-$11.41

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

tradecraftCTR

Over

Invested

$145.79

Value

$147.35

PnL

-$1.55

Record

23%

59-197 (256)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$222.5

Value

$140

PnL

-$82.5

Record

41%

28-40 (68)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$171.97

Value

$103.34

PnL

-$65.49

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.74

Value

$35.66

PnL

-$18.08

Record

30%

122-284 (406)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$26.67

Value

$25.97

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

190-177 (367)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.87

Value

$16.12

PnL

-$10.75

Record

28%

119-313 (432)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.5

Value

$14.38

PnL

-$1.13

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$10.43

Value

$12.02

PnL

+$1.59

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$1.13

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

qidao001<$100

Under

Invested

$8.04

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$1.27

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.