Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 38.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 30¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 10

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$744.8

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 30¢

-31% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares14,960

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares9,548

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 43.2¢	$5.8K	$5.0K	-$819.83	57% 104-80 (184)
SA SadSquid54333	Underavg 57¢	$3.8K	$2.9K	+$673.67	48% 94-102 (196)
CM cm2897	Underavg 57.1¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$651.57	47% 428-476 (904)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$834.56	+$308.06	28% 121-308 (429)
BI biying88888	Underavg 56¢	$789.78	$588.39	+$146.09	19% 30-131 (161)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 51.8¢	$608.2	$434.51	-$173.69	26% 55-158 (213)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 29¢	$86.98	$93.91	+$6.93	29% 32-78 (110)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 44.3¢	$299.99	$76.5	-$56.5	43% 35-46 (81)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$26.58	$46.84	+$15.19	53% 214-189 (403)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 29¢	$11	$11.63	+$0.62	52% 119-110 (229)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$11.76	$4.46	-$7.31	2% 1-63 (64)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$5,781.42

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$819.83

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

SadSquid54333

Under

Invested

$3,849.5

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$673.67

Record

48%

94-102 (196)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$2,083.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$651.57

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$1,120.22

Value

$834.56

PnL

+$308.06

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$789.78

Value

$588.39

PnL

+$146.09

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$608.2

Value

$434.51

PnL

-$173.69

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$86.98

Value

$93.91

PnL

+$6.93

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$299.99

Value

$76.5

PnL

-$56.5

Record

43%

35-46 (81)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.58

Value

$46.84

PnL

+$15.19

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$0.62

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.76

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$7.31

Record

1-63 (64)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 30%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.