Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 36.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 85¢ · $85K held · ended Nov 10

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$85.2K

Combined PnL

$16.4K

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 84.5¢

+58% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$81.1K

Total Shares107,365

Combined PnL+$16.8K

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares16,672

Combined PnL-$478.67

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanaz	Underavg 53.5¢	$35.6K	$50.3K	+$11.7K	1% 3-244 (247)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 51¢	$12.9K	$17.7K	+$3.3K	57% 104-80 (184)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 58¢	$9.2K	$12.0K	+$1.8K	2% 8-332 (340)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 42¢	$4.2K	$3.8K	-$390.9	28% 122-309 (431)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 55.3¢	$768.91	$1.1K	+$149.15	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Overavg 44¢	$133.33	$108.89	-$24.44	1% 2-305 (307)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Overavg 42.5¢	$63.99	$49	-$15	43% 35-46 (81)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$65.85	$40.33	-$25.52	26% 122-345 (467)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$28.81	$39.59	+$0.5	28% 131-332 (463)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 45.9¢	$34.27	$24.33	-$9.94	53% 218-191 (409)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$33.21	$20.34	-$12.87	27% 128-352 (480)
CM cm2897<$100	Underavg 45¢	$13.05	$17.98	+$4.93	47% 428-476 (904)

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$35,609.5

Value

$50.3K

PnL

+$11.7K

Record

3-244 (247)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$12,853.14

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$9,220.43

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

8-332 (340)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,238.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$390.9

Record

28%

122-309 (431)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$768.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$149.15

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Over

Invested

$133.33

Value

$108.89

PnL

-$24.44

Record

2-305 (307)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.99

Value

$49

PnL

-$15

Record

43%

35-46 (81)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.85

Value

$40.33

PnL

-$25.52

Record

26%

122-345 (467)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$28.81

Value

$39.59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

28%

131-332 (463)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.27

Value

$24.33

PnL

-$9.94

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.21

Value

$20.34

PnL

-$12.87

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

cm2897<$100

Under

Invested

$13.05

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$4.93

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.