Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 34.5

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (74%) · Under at 51¢ · $50K held · ended Nov 10

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 74%

Total Value

$50.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 50.5¢

-11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares46,627

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Under14 traders

Total Value$32.3K

Total Shares49,570

Combined PnL+$971.29

Over — 26%Under — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 43.8¢	$13.2K	$9.4K	$-3.7K	57% 104-80 (184)
TKD44	Underavg 48.6¢	$11.0K	$6.9K	+$1.5K	0% 0-69 (69)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$5.1K	$6.7K	+$1.6K	10% 18-162 (180)
ET ethanaz	Underavg 50¢	$5.1K	$6.6K	+$1.4K	1% 3-244 (247)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 69¢	$7.4K	$5.4K	$-2.0K	2% 8-332 (340)
AN Anon455	Underavg 65.3¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$271.94	48% 86-95 (181)
RN1	Underavg 58.2¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$104.43	52% 287-270 (557)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 61¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$47.42	43% 131-176 (307)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$139.72	26% 55-158 (213)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$166.38	49% 427-449 (876)
alpheclabs2	Underavg 48¢	$1.0K	$649.67	+$150.72	46% 49-58 (107)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 50.6¢	$305.32	$390.8	+$85.48	53% 214-189 (403)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$560.11	$350.07	+$75.61	28% 121-308 (429)
BI biying88888	Underavg 56¢	$122.08	$106.82	-$15.26	19% 30-131 (161)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Underavg 65.9¢	$127.94	$95.07	-$32.87	0% 1-225 (226)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Overavg 38.5¢	$9.91	$12.47	+$2.56	75% 18-6 (24)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$22.71	$8.52	-$2.38	33% 108-219 (327)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 19¢	$6.33	$6.88	+$0.55	49% 193-198 (391)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5	$3.13	+$0.63	28% 130-331 (461)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$13,184.11

Value

$9.4K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

TKD44

Under

Invested

$11,033.73

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

0-69 (69)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$5,133.44

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$5,062

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

3-244 (247)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$7,390.05

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

8-332 (340)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$4,918.52

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$271.94

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

RN1

Under

Invested

$4,339.56

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$104.43

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,665.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$47.42

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,692.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$139.72

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,133.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$166.38

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

alpheclabs2

Under

Invested

$1,039.47

Value

$649.67

PnL

+$150.72

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$305.32

Value

$390.8

PnL

+$85.48

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$560.11

Value

$350.07

PnL

+$75.61

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$122.08

Value

$106.82

PnL

-$15.26

Record

19%

30-131 (161)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Under

Invested

$127.94

Value

$95.07

PnL

-$32.87

Record

1-225 (226)

qidao001CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.91

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$2.56

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.71

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$2.38

Record

33%

108-219 (327)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$6.33

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0.55

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

28%

130-331 (461)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.