Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 30.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 36¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 10

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$41.3K

Combined PnL

$868

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 36¢

-32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares41,735

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Under7 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares37,925

Combined PnL$-5.4K

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 47.1¢	$18.2K	$24.5K	+$6.3K	57% 104-80 (184)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 55.2¢	$8.3K	$5.5K	$-2.8K	47% 428-476 (904)
TKD44CTR	Underavg 51.6¢	$5.9K	$4.1K	$-1.9K	0% 0-69 (69)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51.9¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$86.47	28% 121-308 (429)
betdgeCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$644.55	48% 10-11 (21)
ON Onomatopoeia777	Overavg 51¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$40.8	9% 2-21 (23)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 64¢	$422.67	$213.45	-$57.06	26% 55-158 (213)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 36¢	$222.56	$110.17	+$30.05	27% 128-350 (478)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 51¢	$110.34	$109.26	-$1.08	53% 214-189 (403)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$10.21	$12.04	+$1.82	18% 63-288 (351)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$18,180.26

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$8,281.81

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

TKD44CTR

Under

Invested

$5,934.43

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

0-69 (69)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$3,853.96

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$86.47

Record

28%

121-308 (429)

betdgeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,278.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$644.55

Record

48%

10-11 (21)

Onomatopoeia777

Over

Invested

$1,387.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$40.8

Record

2-21 (23)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$422.67

Value

$213.45

PnL

-$57.06

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$222.56

Value

$110.17

PnL

+$30.05

Record

27%

128-350 (478)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$110.34

Value

$109.26

PnL

-$1.08

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.21

Value

$12.04

PnL

+$1.82

Record

18%

63-288 (351)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.