Spread: Vikings (-2.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (64%) · Bills at 75¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 10

Vikings25¢Bills75¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 64%

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

-$70.32

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 75¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings25%

Bills75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares16,608

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares15,871

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Bills — 64%Vikings — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Billsavg 63¢	$5.7K	$6.9K	+$1.3K	0% 2-440 (442)
RN1	Billsavg 67¢	$5.5K	$3.8K	+$191.09	52% 287-270 (557)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Vikingsavg 37¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	$-1.4K	57% 104-80 (184)
PR primmCTR	Vikingsavg 33¢	$5.8K	$1.7K	-$202.54	10% 18-162 (180)
38 38791873984189	Billsavg 67¢	$1.2K	$841.93	+$41.8	49% 427-449 (876)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Billsavg 67.1¢	$348.1	$407.21	+$59.11	53% 214-189 (403)
nigiri99CTR	Vikingsavg 33¢	$355.41	$317.72	-$37.69	41% 29-42 (71)
SI Siddhartha1	Billsavg 67¢	$166.66	$175.36	+$8.71	55% 63-51 (114)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Billsavg 68¢	$84.99	$88.12	+$3.12	2% 1-63 (64)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 67¢	$77.6	$55.71	+$2.53	49% 193-198 (391)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 33¢	$11.3	$3.33	-$0.4	75% 18-6 (24)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Bills

Invested

$5,662.29

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

2-440 (442)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$5,459.67

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$191.09

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Vikings

Invested

$3,328.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

primmCTR

Vikings

Invested

$5,787

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$202.54

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

38791873984189

Bills

Invested

$1,194.23

Value

$841.93

PnL

+$41.8

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bills

Invested

$348.1

Value

$407.21

PnL

+$59.11

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

nigiri99CTR

Vikings

Invested

$355.41

Value

$317.72

PnL

-$37.69

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

Siddhartha1

Bills

Invested

$166.66

Value

$175.36

PnL

+$8.71

Record

55%

63-51 (114)

Oddstorm<$100

Bills

Invested

$84.99

Value

$88.12

PnL

+$3.12

Record

1-63 (64)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$77.6

Value

$55.71

PnL

+$2.53

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

qidao001CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$11.3

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.4

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.