Spread: Vikings (-1.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (64%) · Bills at 78¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 10

Vikings22¢Bills78¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 64%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$91.76

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 78¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings22%

Bills78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills9 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares10,505

Combined PnL+$534.38

Vikings5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares8,773

Combined PnL-$626.13

Bills — 64%Vikings — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBills 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Billsavg 65.5¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$0	48% 86-95 (181)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Billsavg 62¢	$1.6K	$2.0K	+$402.51	0% 2-440 (442)
RN1	Billsavg 66.8¢	$2.7K	$1.9K	+$59.2	52% 287-270 (557)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Vikingsavg 33.7¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$659.2	57% 104-80 (184)
PR primmCTR	Vikingsavg 35¢	$841.6	$887	+$38.25	10% 18-162 (180)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Billsavg 65¢	$500	$347.5	+$22.5	53% 214-189 (403)
65 6512395314597884	Billsavg 63¢	$257.46	$285.94	+$28.48	43% 131-176 (307)
HO HomeRunHazard	Billsavg 63¢	$189.92	$208.29	+$18.38	29% 32-78 (110)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 36¢	$105.02	$103.53	-$1.62	49% 427-449 (876)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 65.5¢	$93.87	$52.66	+$2.28	49% 193-198 (391)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 34¢	$32.3	$28.98	-$3.33	47% 428-476 (904)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Billsavg 65¢	$8.31	$8.88	+$0.58	2% 1-63 (64)
TA takeormake<$100	Billsavg 62¢	$6.2	$7	+$0.45	22% 84-295 (379)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Vikingsavg 35¢	$5.29	$1.61	-$0.24	75% 18-6 (24)

Anon455

Bills

Invested

$3,380

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Bills

Invested

$1,559.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$402.51

Record

2-440 (442)

RN1

Bills

Invested

$2,707.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$59.2

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Vikings

Invested

$1,901.05

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$659.2

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

primmCTR

Vikings

Invested

$841.6

Value

$887

PnL

+$38.25

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bills

Invested

$500

Value

$347.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

6512395314597884

Bills

Invested

$257.46

Value

$285.94

PnL

+$28.48

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

HomeRunHazard

Bills

Invested

$189.92

Value

$208.29

PnL

+$18.38

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$105.02

Value

$103.53

PnL

-$1.62

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$93.87

Value

$52.66

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

cm2897CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$32.3

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$3.33

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

Oddstorm<$100

Bills

Invested

$8.31

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$0.58

Record

1-63 (64)

takeormake<$100

Bills

Invested

$6.2

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

qidao001CTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$5.29

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$0.24

Record

75%

18-6 (24)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVikings 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBills 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.