Spread: Vikings (-14.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (45%) · Bills at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Vikings5¢Bills95¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 45%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$57.49

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 94.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vikings5%

Bills95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,263

Combined PnL+$0.05

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$878.48

Total Shares16,119

Combined PnL+$57.44

Bills — 45%Vikings — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBills 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Billsavg 94.4¢	$377.6	$378.2	+$0.6	5% 21-415 (436)
nigiri99CTR	Vikingsavg 5.6¢	$317.74	$309.18	-$8.54	43% 28-37 (65)
GC GC-P	Billsavg 94¢	$294.6	$278.54	-$0.41	5% 11-190 (201)
NM NM-P	Billsavg 94¢	$294.55	$278.5	-$0.41	6% 11-164 (175)
38 38791873984189CTR	Vikingsavg 5¢	$603	$269.38	+$26.87	49% 383-404 (787)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Billsavg 94.5¢	$249.33	$249.57	+$0.24	68% 47-22 (69)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Vikingsavg 4.5¢	$159.42	$194.36	+$34.94	1% 1-78 (79)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.1¢	$55.03	$59.62	+$4.59	2% 3-161 (164)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.5¢	$32.62	$32.32	-$0.3	23% 82-268 (350)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 5.5¢	$13.74	$13.61	-$0.12	19% 42-180 (222)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 94.3¢	$15.09	$9.46	+$0.03	48% 173-188 (361)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bills

Invested

$377.6

Value

$378.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

21-415 (436)

nigiri99CTR

Vikings

Invested

$317.74

Value

$309.18

PnL

-$8.54

Record

43%

28-37 (65)

GC-P

Bills

Invested

$294.6

Value

$278.54

PnL

-$0.41

Record

11-190 (201)

NM-P

Bills

Invested

$294.55

Value

$278.5

PnL

-$0.41

Record

11-164 (175)

38791873984189CTR

Vikings

Invested

$603

Value

$269.38

PnL

+$26.87

Record

49%

383-404 (787)

xtxpleasecallme

Bills

Invested

$249.33

Value

$249.57

PnL

+$0.24

Record

68%

47-22 (69)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Vikings

Invested

$159.42

Value

$194.36

PnL

+$34.94

Record

1-78 (79)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$55.03

Value

$59.62

PnL

+$4.59

Record

3-161 (164)

VenusianCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$32.62

Value

$32.32

PnL

-$0.3

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$13.74

Value

$13.61

PnL

-$0.12

Record

19%

42-180 (222)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$15.09

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

173-188 (361)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBills 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.