Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bills, while the market favors Vikings (59%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bills (-8.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (64%) · Bills at 42¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 10

Bills42¢Vikings58¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

36.2¢ → 41.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills42%

Vikings59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares13,376

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Vikings4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,951

Combined PnL-$175.48

Bills — 64%Vikings — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBills 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBills 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 55.9¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$14.39	57% 104-80 (184)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 55.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$38.97
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 45.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$24.58
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 30¢	$2.2K	$3.5K	+$1.0K	22% 85-296 (381)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Billsavg 44¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$268.86	14% 40-241 (281)
JU justaluckydude	Vikingsavg 65.8¢	$1.1K	$931.95	-$192.64	26% 55-158 (213)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Billsavg 35¢	$175	$245	+$70	53% 218-191 (409)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Billsavg 44¢	$76	$98	+$22	47% 428-476 (904)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Vikingsavg 69¢	$73.14	$72.42	-$0.72	8% 11-120 (131)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Billsavg 49¢	$63.7	$48.75	-$14.95	43% 247-324 (571)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	Vikingsavg 50¢	$26.79	$44.65	+$17.86	100% 51-0 (51)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Billsavg 31¢	$2.59	$3.33	+$0.75	18% 63-288 (351)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Billsavg 30¢	$2.18	$2.65	+$0.48	27% 128-352 (480)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Vikingsavg 53¢	$1	$1.03	+$0.03	5% 12-213 (225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$5,076.3

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$14.39

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

Vikings$2,676.4655.9¢-$38.97

Bills$1,990.3645.9¢+$24.58

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$2,185.35

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

22%

85-296 (381)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Bills

Invested

$2,365.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$268.86

Record

14%

40-241 (281)

justaluckydude

Vikings

Invested

$1,124.59

Value

$931.95

PnL

-$192.64

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Bills

Invested

$175

Value

$245

PnL

+$70

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

cm2897CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$76

Value

$98

PnL

+$22

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

BoomLaLa<$100

Vikings

Invested

$73.14

Value

$72.42

PnL

-$0.72

Record

11-120 (131)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$63.7

Value

$48.75

PnL

-$14.95

Record

43%

247-324 (571)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.79

Value

$44.65

PnL

+$17.86

Record

100%

51-0 (51)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.59

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.75

Record

18%

63-288 (351)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.48

Record

27%

128-352 (480)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Vikings

Invested

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

12-213 (225)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBills 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBills 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.