Spread: Bills (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (75%) · Vikings at 57¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 10

Bills43¢Vikings57¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 75%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$24.61

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills43%

Vikings57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,850

Combined PnL+$1.15

Bills2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,692

Combined PnL+$23.46

Vikings — 75%Bills — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Vikings 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Vikingsavg 58¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$14.13	—
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.47	—
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Billsavg 41¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$12.25	—
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Billsavg 42¢	$942.06	$953.28	+$11.22	—
nigiri99	Vikingsavg 59¢	$388.22	$384.93	-$3.29	—
GC GC-P	Vikingsavg 58¢	$119.59	$120.62	+$1.03	—
NM NM-P<$100	Vikingsavg 59¢	$20.65	$20.48	-$0.18	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 58¢	$8.7	$8.63	-$0.07	—

HomeRunHazard

Vikings

Invested

$1,639.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$14.13

Record

—

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$1,223.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.47

Record

—

Siddhartha1CTR

Bills

Invested

$1,004.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.25

Record

—

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bills

Invested

$942.06

Value

$953.28

PnL

+$11.22

Record

—

nigiri99

Vikings

Invested

$388.22

Value

$384.93

PnL

-$3.29

Record

—

GC-P

Vikings

Invested

$119.59

Value

$120.62

PnL

+$1.03

Record

—

NM-P<$100

Vikings

Invested

$20.65

Value

$20.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Vikings 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.