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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Bills vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 22.5

Resolved Under. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Over 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,184

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares11,457

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 48¢	$4.8K	$6.9K	+$2.1K	5% 8-141 (149)
nigiri99	Underavg 50.7¢	$722.12	$1.4K	+$701.88	41% 29-42 (71)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$4.5K	$530.67	-$992.55	49% 427-449 (876)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.3¢	$282.79	$530.67	+$247.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.1¢	$1.2K	—	$-1.2K
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 53¢	$500	$500	+$235	53% 214-189 (403)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$400	$400	-$27.4	5% 29-539 (568)
PE penguin1125CTR	Overavg 51.7¢	$5.0K	—	$-5.0K	3% 3-99 (102)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$542.3	—	-$542.3	47% 428-476 (904)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$175.26	—	-$175.26	2% 4-200 (204)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 48¢	—	—	+$0	52% 119-110 (229)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$4,788.53

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

5%

8-141 (149)

Invested

$722.12

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$701.88

Record

41%

29-42 (71)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$4,514.82

Value

$530.67

PnL

-$992.55

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

Both legs:

Under$282.7953.3¢+$247.86

Over$1,239.6350.1¢$-1.2K

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$235

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$400

Value

$400

PnL

-$27.4

Record

5%

29-539 (568)

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

—

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

3%

3-99 (102)

Invested

$542.3

Value

—

PnL

-$542.3

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

Invested

$175.26

Value

—

PnL

-$175.26

Record

2%

4-200 (204)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x079f15cd...e0d250

Slug

nfl-buf-min-2026-11-10-1h-total-22pt5

Traders in this Market

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under — $6.9K

nigiri99

Under — $1.4K

38791873984189

Arbitrage — excluded

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under — $500

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under — $400

penguin1125

Over — $0

cm2897

Over — $0

purplegatto

Over — $0

VeryLucky888

Under — $0

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