Cardinals vs. Seahawks: O/U 32.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 81¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 8

Over20¢Under80¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 80.5¢

+48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares25,758

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares22,608

Combined PnL$-4.9K

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Underavg 56.9¢	$9.5K	$12.3K	+$2.8K	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$5.4K	$6.7K	+$1.2K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$3.1K	$5.2K	+$2.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.5¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	-$984
AN Anon455	Underavg 61.8¢	$4.1K	$4.8K	+$699.44	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 38.4¢	$8.1K	$3.6K	$-4.5K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 29.6¢	$1.5K	$2.2K	+$1.7K	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 57.6¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$367.05	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 48.7¢	$718.92	$1.2K	+$481.53	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$730.48	$293.78	-$436.7	47% 242-270 (512)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 27¢	$18.03	$21.04	+$3.01	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$12.51	$12.6	+$0.09	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 28¢	$15	$4.58	+$0.38	52% 27288-24794 (52082)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$9,539.23

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,447.41

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Under$3,059.9447.5¢+$2.2K

Over$2,387.4731.5¢-$984

Anon455

Under

Invested

$4,076.31

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$699.44

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$8,074.07

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,505.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$1,302.52

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$367.05

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$718.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$481.53

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$730.48

Value

$293.78

PnL

-$436.7

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$18.03

Value

$21.04

PnL

+$3.01

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.51

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.