Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (80%) · Seahawks at 98¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Seahawks98¢Cardinals2¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$653.03

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 97.9¢

+97% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks98%

Cardinals2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,735

Combined PnL+$874.63

Cardinals2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,859

Combined PnL-$221.6

Seahawks — 80%Cardinals — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Painfulvoid	Seahawksavg 46¢	$4.0K	$2.5K	+$700	53% 2026-1767 (3793)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Cardinalsavg 44.2¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$219.77	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Seahawksavg 56.5¢	$1.0K	$605	+$40	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
AU Aurelius7	Seahawksavg 56¢	$400	$432.14	+$32.14	47% 293-334 (627)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 55¢	$303.2	$309.08	+$5.88	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 55¢	$209.83	$242.25	+$32.43
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 51¢	$93.37	$66.82	-$26.55
OM omnibus-076daa	Seahawksavg 51¢	$425.22	$270.01	+$53.15	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 53¢	$300	$190.5	+$31.5	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
CM cm2897	Seahawksavg 64¢	$116.48	$115.57	-$0.91	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
LI LightParadox<$100	Seahawksavg 47¢	$56.81	$36.07	+$9.37	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI Limousin<$100	Seahawksavg 47¢	$56.81	$36.07	+$9.37	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
PA Pan9XCTR	Cardinalsavg 52.3¢	$117	$13.47	-$1.83	52% 27288-24794 (52082)

Painfulvoid

Seahawks

Invested

$4,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$700

Record

53%

2026-1767 (3793)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,256.42

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$219.77

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Seahawks

Invested

$1,000

Value

$605

PnL

+$40

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Aurelius7

Seahawks

Invested

$400

Value

$432.14

PnL

+$32.14

Record

47%

293-334 (627)

Anon455ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$303.2

Value

$309.08

PnL

+$5.88

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Seahawks$209.8355¢+$32.43

Cardinals$93.3751¢-$26.55

omnibus-076daa

Seahawks

Invested

$425.22

Value

$270.01

PnL

+$53.15

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$300

Value

$190.5

PnL

+$31.5

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

cm2897

Seahawks

Invested

$116.48

Value

$115.57

PnL

-$0.91

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

LightParadox<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$56.81

Value

$36.07

PnL

+$9.37

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Limousin<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$56.81

Value

$36.07

PnL

+$9.37

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Pan9XCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$117

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$1.83

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.