Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (54%) · Seahawks at 85¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Seahawks85¢Cardinals15¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$765.81

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 85¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks85%

Cardinals15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks7 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares15,144

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Cardinals6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares14,750

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Seahawks — 54%Cardinals — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (5 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleCardinals 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrSeahawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Seahawksavg 66.2¢	$5.1K	$6.5K	+$1.4K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
betdge	Seahawksavg 69¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$875	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Cardinalsavg 35.5¢	$2.9K	$1.1K	$-1.9K	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
RollAwayTheDew	Seahawksavg 66¢	$945.44	$981.25	+$35.81	54% 593-502 (1095)
RN1CTR	Cardinalsavg 31.7¢	$846.4	$867.75	+$21.35	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cardinalsavg 31.9¢	$666.24	$751.99	+$85.74	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 63¢	$555.65	$687.18	+$186.15	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cardinalsavg 34¢	$637.66	$609.53	-$28.13	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 32.5¢	$606.59	$554.96	-$51.63	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 58¢	$281.59	$419.96	+$138.37
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 32.5¢	$325	$135	-$190
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	56% 195-152 (347)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 50¢	$100	$137	+$37
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 50¢	$100	$63	-$37
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 63¢	$194	$200	+$6	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 59.7¢	$74.15	$52.34	+$6.26	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
NM NM-P<$100	Seahawksavg 67¢	$4.08	$4.11	+$0.03	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 43¢	$3.44	$2.6	-$0.84	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 31¢	$3.77	$1.19	+$0.02	59% 52401-37126 (89527)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Seahawks

Invested

$5,067.42

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

betdge

Seahawks

Invested

$3,450

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$875

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$2,944.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

RollAwayTheDew

Seahawks

Invested

$945.44

Value

$981.25

PnL

+$35.81

Record

54%

593-502 (1095)

RN1CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$846.4

Value

$867.75

PnL

+$21.35

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

takeormakeCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$666.24

Value

$751.99

PnL

+$85.74

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$555.65

Value

$687.18

PnL

+$186.15

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$637.66

Value

$609.53

PnL

-$28.13

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$606.59

Value

$554.96

PnL

-$51.63

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

Both legs:

Seahawks$281.5958¢+$138.37

Cardinals$32532.5¢-$190

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

Both legs:

Invested

$194

Value

$200

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$74.15

Value

$52.34

PnL

+$6.26

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

NM-P<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

Anon455CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3.44

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.84

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3.77

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0.02

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cardinals) and the top 1000 (5 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleCardinals 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrSeahawks 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCardinals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.