Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
1
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$412.74
$2.27
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $286.61 | $290.02 | +$3.41 | 57% 56-43 (99) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.7¢ | $195.79 | $207.11 | +$11.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $90.82 | $82.91 | -$7.91 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $61.2 | $63.47 | +$2.27 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $61.77 | $59.25 | -$2.52 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66¢ | $34.24 | $36.06 | +$1.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $27.53 | $23.2 | -$4.33 |
Invested
$286.61
Value
$290.02
PnL
+$3.41
Record
57%
56-43 (99)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$61.2
Value
$63.47
PnL
+$2.27
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$61.77
Value
$59.25
PnL
-$2.52
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.