Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.0K
-$65.45
88.9¢ → 90.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 89.4¢ | $1.0K | $947.23 | -$45.29 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
 paddaa | Noavg 88.1¢ | $678.85 | $689.44 | +$10.59 | 57% 818-626 (1444) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $190.36 | $235.73 | -$22.69 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $97.5 | $97.5 | +$0.55 | 73% 337-127 (464) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 89.9¢ | $311.5 | $43.53 | -$8.61 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
IstarothInvested
$1,037.18
Value
$947.23
PnL
-$45.29
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
paddaaInvested
$678.85
Value
$689.44
PnL
+$10.59
Record
57%
818-626 (1444)
Invested
$190.36
Value
$235.73
PnL
-$22.69
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
Invested
$97.5
Value
$97.5
PnL
+$0.55
Record
73%
337-127 (464)
Invested
$311.5
Value
$43.53
PnL
-$8.61
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.