Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 41¢ · $351 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$350.51

Combined PnL

$32.72

Smart Money Entry

29.2¢ → 40.5¢

+39% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$271.58

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$32.72

Yes1 trader

Total Value$13.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE denizzCTR	Noavg 29.5¢	$188.01	$204.23	+$16.22	68% 597-283 (880)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 71.4¢	$82.3	$65.32	-$0.44	28% 280-709 (989)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.4¢	$46.65	$44.42	-$2.24
└ No leg	Noavg 25.1¢	$16.37	$20.91	+$1.79
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 24.2¢	$39.85	$46.76	+$16.35	35% 14791-26919 (41710)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$20.45	$20.6	+$0.14	38% 167-275 (442)
LI lissartter<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$13.6	$13.6	+$0	42% 5192-7111 (12303)

denizzCTR

Invested

$188.01

Value

$204.23

PnL

+$16.22

Record

68%

597-283 (880)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.3

Value

$65.32

PnL

-$0.44

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

Both legs:

Yes$46.6571.4¢-$2.24

No$16.3725.1¢+$1.79

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$39.85

Value

$46.76

PnL

+$16.35

Record

35%

14791-26919 (41710)

crypto-basenjiCTR<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

$20.6

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

167-275 (442)

lissartter<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

5192-7111 (12303)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.5%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$140.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

241.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.