Next Israeli government a minority government?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 73¢ · $499 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$498.78
-$21.99
69.8¢ → 72.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 70.2¢ | $259.27 | $269.57 | +$10.3 | 57% 825-634 (1459) |
10 101456<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $81.89 | $86.63 | +$4.75 | 52% 131-120 (251) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $70 | $74 | +$2.5 | 56% 15322-11880 (27202) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $69.93 | $46.67 | -$6.26 | 42% 5246-7177 (12423) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68.8¢ | $146.86 | $21.9 | -$33.29 | 36% 15698-27712 (43410) |
paddaaInvested
$259.27
Value
$269.57
PnL
+$10.3
Record
57%
825-634 (1459)
Invested
$81.89
Value
$86.63
PnL
+$4.75
Record
52%
131-120 (251)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$70
Value
$74
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
15322-11880 (27202)
Invested
$69.93
Value
$46.67
PnL
-$6.26
Record
42%
5246-7177 (12423)
Invested
$146.86
Value
$21.9
PnL
-$33.29
Record
36%
15698-27712 (43410)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.