Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$54.47

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 86.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL+$56.33

No1 trader

Total Value$3.87

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$1.86

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME MenacingTurtle	Yesavg 83.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$54.67	— 0-2 (2)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$70.7	$70	-$0.7	— 1-10 (11)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 80.4¢	$31.24	$33.6	+$2.36	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$5.73	$3.87	-$1.86	41% 2924-4137 (7061)

MenacingTurtle

Yes

Invested

$1,637.03

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$54.67

Record

—

0-2 (2)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.7

Value

$70

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

1-10 (11)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.24

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$2.36

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$1.86

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.3%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.