Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 15, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 57¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$157.04
$2.86
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 80.6¢ | $94.48 | $88.8 | -$5.68 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.7¢ | $17.36 | $49.12 | +$31.76 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 80.6¢ | $77.12 | $39.69 | -$37.43 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $21.89 | $26.43 | +$4.54 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.6¢ | $7.21 | $22.72 | +$15.5 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $20.28 | $10.79 | -$9.49 | — 1-10 (11) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $16 | $8.3 | -$7.7 | — 0-10 (10) |
Invested
$94.48
Value
$88.8
PnL
-$5.68
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$21.89
Value
$26.43
PnL
+$4.54
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$7.21
Value
$22.72
PnL
+$15.5
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
Invested
$20.28
Value
$10.79
PnL
-$9.49
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$16
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$7.7
Record
—
0-10 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.