Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 62¢ · $593 held · ends Nov 20
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$593.08
-$30.12
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $491.69 | $437.34 | -$17.7 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $313.38 | $276.94 | -$37.47 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31.6¢ | $140.61 | $160.4 | +$19.76 | |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 33.7¢ | $525.89 | $70.21 | -$14.31 | 36% 16052-28068 (44120) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $442.6 | $46.56 | -$13.61 | 42% 5280-7232 (12512) |
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $40.75 | $38.97 | -$2.19 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$491.69
Value
$437.34
PnL
-$17.7
Record
18%
365-1632 (1997)
Both legs:
Invested
$525.89
Value
$70.21
PnL
-$14.31
Record
36%
16052-28068 (44120)
Invested
$442.6
Value
$46.56
PnL
-$13.61
Record
42%
5280-7232 (12512)
Invested
$40.75
Value
$38.97
PnL
-$2.19
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.