Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 33¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$362.16
-$32.42
44.2¢ → 33¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $177.98 | $176.24 | -$1.29 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 44.2¢ | $130.77 | $94.69 | -$26.7 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 54¢ | $109.29 | $88.71 | -$4.7 | 36% 15006-27064 (42070) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.24 | $2.51 | +$0.26 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
IstarothInvested
$177.98
Value
$176.24
PnL
-$1.29
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
Invested
$130.77
Value
$94.69
PnL
-$26.7
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
Invested
$109.29
Value
$88.71
PnL
-$4.7
Record
36%
15006-27064 (42070)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.26
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.