Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 75¢ · $454 held · ends Dec 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$454.11
-$33.15
69¢ → 74.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 68.5¢ | $233.14 | $265.47 | +$32.32 | 76% 510-161 (671) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 22.1¢ | $156.85 | $155.85 | -$1 | 53% 1087-974 (2061) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $49.35 | $13.92 | -$17.89 | 42% 5172-7103 (12275) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 78.5¢ | $9.77 | $9.47 | -$0.3 | 57% 12899-9813 (22712) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 75.9¢ | $145.6 | $9.41 | -$46.28 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
KimchiCapitalInvested
$233.14
Value
$265.47
PnL
+$32.32
Record
76%
510-161 (671)
Invested
$156.85
Value
$155.85
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
1087-974 (2061)
Invested
$49.35
Value
$13.92
PnL
-$17.89
Record
42%
5172-7103 (12275)
Invested
$9.77
Value
$9.47
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
12899-9813 (22712)
Invested
$145.6
Value
$9.41
PnL
-$46.28
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.