Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $423 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$423.22
-$10.55
99.3¢ → 98.8¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $413.05 | $405.46 | -$7.59 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 91.7¢ | $11.05 | $11.77 | +$0.72 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $6.29 | $4.8 | -$1.49 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.4¢ | $0.81 | $0.81 | +$0 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.7¢ | $2.57 | $0.38 | -$2.19 | — 1-18 (19) |
balthazarInvested
$413.05
Value
$405.46
PnL
-$7.59
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$11.77
PnL
+$0.72
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$1.49
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.81
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$2.57
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$2.19
Record
—
1-18 (19)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.