Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 11, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 2.5¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$94.3
-$9.55
Research grade
AvoidNo at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $4.14 | $48.76 | +$44.62 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2.04 | $19.75 | +$17.71 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.2¢ | $10.46 | $17.82 | +$7.35 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
E1 E100hrall012u312nc0cgvvbvc8CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.8¢ | $2.04 | $6.5 | +$4.46 | — 0-8 (8) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $85.05 | $1.22 | -$83.83 | 48% 23-25 (48) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.2¢ | $0.12 | $0.26 | +$0.14 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$4.14
Value
$48.76
PnL
+$44.62
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$19.75
PnL
+$17.71
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.46
Value
$17.82
PnL
+$7.35
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$2.04
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$4.46
Record
—
0-8 (8)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$85.05
Value
$1.22
PnL
-$83.83
Record
48%
23-25 (48)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.26
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.