Newsom's Democratic nomination odds hit 20% by December 31?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$56.6

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 91¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,209

Combined PnL+$63.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.18

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$6.74

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tenebrus7	Noavg 85.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$67.47	0% 0-41 (41)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 77¢	$26.6	$22.46	-$4.14	41% 3022-4424 (7446)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$31.52	$9.72	-$5.4	— 1-10 (11)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$12	$3.46	-$1.34	— 1-9 (10)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,014.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$67.47

Record

0-41 (41)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$22.46

PnL

-$4.14

Record

41%

3022-4424 (7446)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.52

Value

$9.72

PnL

-$5.4

Record

—

1-10 (11)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$1.34

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.3%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.