Newsom's Democratic nomination odds hit 15% by December 31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$262.86
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 55.9¢ | $914.57 | $1.2K | +$263.3 | — 0-1 (1) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $118.79 | $124.98 | +$6.19 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.3¢ | $68.6 | $70.64 | +$2.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.7¢ | $50.2 | $54.34 | +$4.14 | |
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $46.87 | $48.06 | +$1.19 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.5¢ | $76.03 | $38.8 | -$1.68 | — 0-12 (12) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $22 | $22.05 | +$0.05 | — 1-10 (11) |
viniiInvested
$914.57
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$263.3
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$118.79
Value
$124.98
PnL
+$6.19
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Both legs:
Invested
$46.87
Value
$48.06
PnL
+$1.19
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$76.03
Value
$38.8
PnL
-$1.68
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$22
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
1-10 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.