Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

New NVIDIA CEO named by December 31, 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$164.88

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 45¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$625.41

Total Shares1,245

Combined PnL+$114.58

No5 traders

Total Value$473.58

Total Shares949

Combined PnL+$50.3

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST Started-with-20-USDCTR	Yesavg 42.3¢	$313.72	$345.3	+$61.49	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 40.8¢	$221.13	$273.99	+$52.86	48% 20-22 (42)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 40.1¢	$145.58	$181.74	+$36.16	3% 3-109 (112)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 44¢	$101.65	$115.51	+$13.86	2% 1-41 (42)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 54.7¢	$222.39	$104.32	+$7.2	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
KimchiCapital<$100	Noavg 46¢	$39.12	$42.95	+$3.83	— 9-0 (9)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$49.41	$29.06	-$10.74	— 6-5 (11)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.8¢	$9.97	$6.12	+$0.22	42% 174-240 (414)

Started-with-20-USDCTR

Yes

Invested

$313.72

Value

$345.3

PnL

+$61.49

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$221.13

Value

$273.99

PnL

+$52.86

Record

48%

20-22 (42)

melonmanm

Invested

$145.58

Value

$181.74

PnL

+$36.16

Record

3-109 (112)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$101.65

Value

$115.51

PnL

+$13.86

Record

1-41 (42)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$222.39

Value

$104.32

PnL

+$7.2

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

KimchiCapital<$100

Invested

$39.12

Value

$42.95

PnL

+$3.83

Record

—

9-0 (9)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$49.41

Value

$29.06

PnL

-$10.74

Record

—

6-5 (11)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.97

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.22

Record

42%

174-240 (414)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.0%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$112.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

212.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.