Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $505 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$504.87
-$391.5
42.6¢ → 63.5¢
+49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE denizz | Noavg 45.7¢ | $560.02 | $177.51 | -$382.51 | 68% 597-283 (880) |
 crypto-basenji | Noavg 60.5¢ | $115.51 | $123.2 | +$7.69 | 38% 167-274 (441) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 68.4¢ | $121.86 | $120.24 | -$0.19 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 24.3¢ | $175.43 | $70.95 | -$13.49 | 35% 14744-26906 (41650) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 74.3¢ | $9.56 | $7.6 | +$0.35 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $8.72 | $5.38 | -$3.35 | 42% 5191-7110 (12301) |
Invested
$560.02
Value
$177.51
PnL
-$382.51
Record
68%
597-283 (880)
crypto-basenjiInvested
$115.51
Value
$123.2
PnL
+$7.69
Record
38%
167-274 (441)
IstarothCTRInvested
$121.86
Value
$120.24
PnL
-$0.19
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Invested
$175.43
Value
$70.95
PnL
-$13.49
Record
35%
14744-26906 (41650)
Invested
$9.56
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.35
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$3.35
Record
42%
5191-7110 (12301)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.