Will RKC Waalwijk win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$1.2K
$25.81
55.2¢ → 57.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 55.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$21.08 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
BI biying99999 | Noavg 55¢ | $98.45 | $101.13 | +$2.68 | 36% 107-193 (300) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $44.52 | $46.2 | +$1.68 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $21.98 | $22.39 | +$0.41 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $14.93 | $14.51 | -$0.42 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $10.67 | $11.06 | +$0.39 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.65 | +$0.15 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $4.5 | $4.4 | -$0.1 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.17 | -$0.07 | 42% 995-1363 (2358) |
Invested
$1,000.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$21.08
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$98.45
Value
$101.13
PnL
+$2.68
Record
36%
107-193 (300)
Invested
$44.52
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$1.68
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$21.98
Value
$22.39
PnL
+$0.41
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$14.93
Value
$14.51
PnL
-$0.42
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$0.39
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.17
PnL
-$0.07
Record
42%
995-1363 (2358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.