Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

RKC Waalwijk vs. FC Den Bosch: O/U 3.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $627 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$627.49

Combined PnL

-$70.6

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$486.28

Total Shares845

Combined PnL-$65.5

Over3 traders

Total Value$141.21

Total Shares338

Combined PnL-$5.1

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smithagentCTR	Underavg 69¢	$272.55	$237	-$35.55	45% 679-837 (1516)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 69.3¢	$194.8	$127.19	-$67.62	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$40.23	$73.75	+$33.52	36% 979-1704 (2683)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 37¢	$43.97	$63.88	+$19.91	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 55.9¢	$78.34	$50.33	-$28.01	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 24¢	$24	$27	+$3	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 69¢	$25.82	$26.01	+$0.19	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11	$11	-$0	36% 114-200 (314)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.97	$7.85	+$2.88	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$3.47	+$1.07	37% 996-1715 (2711)

smithagentCTR

Under

Invested

$272.55

Value

$237

PnL

-$35.55

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$194.8

Value

$127.19

PnL

-$67.62

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.23

Value

$73.75

PnL

+$33.52

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$43.97

Value

$63.88

PnL

+$19.91

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$78.34

Value

$50.33

PnL

-$28.01

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$24

Value

$27

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.82

Value

$26.01

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

biying99999CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$11

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

114-200 (314)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.97

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$2.88

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$1.07

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.