RKC Waalwijk vs. FC Den Bosch: O/U 2.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 59¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$424.35

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 58.5¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,038

Combined PnL-$59.03

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,400

Combined PnL+$483.37

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
95 95de	Overavg 73¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$60	55% 12-10 (22)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 27¢	$483.58	$743.28	+$259.7	36% 975-1701 (2676)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 27.1¢	$219.24	$336.13	+$116.89	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 25.7¢	$170.26	$275.4	+$105.14	37% 991-1715 (2706)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 31.7¢	$21.14	$27.72	+$6.57	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 76¢	$23.71	$23.87	+$0.16	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$10.75	$7.39	-$3.36	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 70¢	$4.76	$5.58	+$0.82	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.6	$4.5	-$0.1	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$3.73	$2.24	-$1.49	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$0.73	$0.74	+$0.01	55% 5402-4371 (9773)

95de

Over

Invested

$2,189.9

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$60

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$483.58

Value

$743.28

PnL

+$259.7

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$219.24

Value

$336.13

PnL

+$116.89

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$170.26

Value

$275.4

PnL

+$105.14

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.14

Value

$27.72

PnL

+$6.57

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$23.71

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$0.16

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.75

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$3.36

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$0.82

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.73

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$1.49

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.73

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.