Will FC Den Bosch win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$232.43

Smart Money Entry

71.6¢ → 90.5¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,723

Combined PnL+$366.03

Yes5 traders

Total Value$499.92

Total Shares1,930

Combined PnL-$133.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 67¢	$983.76	$1.3K	+$330.37	11% 36-290 (326)
RN1	Noavg 79.3¢	$722.35	$755.62	+$33.27	55% 5402-4371 (9773)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 32.1¢	$573.59	$383.18	-$190.4	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
└ No leg	Noavg 84¢	$273.16	$294.29	+$21.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.1¢	$300.43	$88.89	-$211.54
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$255.82	$256.13	+$0.31	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 67¢	$193.35	$197.67	+$4.33	47% 936-1036 (1972)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$87.91	$85.25	-$2.66	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$77.22	$74.88	-$2.34	37% 367-618 (985)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 32.5¢	$190.46	$61.55	-$128.91	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 90¢	$32.04	$32.22	+$0.18	76% 257-83 (340)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$22.11	$22.11	+$0	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$19.39	$17.28	-$2.11	31% 355-790 (1145)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$983.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$330.37

Record

11%

36-290 (326)

RN1

Invested

$722.35

Value

$755.62

PnL

+$33.27

Record

55%

5402-4371 (9773)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$573.59

Value

$383.18

PnL

-$190.4

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Both legs:

No$273.1684¢+$21.14

Yes$300.4332.1¢-$211.54

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$255.82

Value

$256.13

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

SnakeBall

Invested

$193.35

Value

$197.67

PnL

+$4.33

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.91

Value

$85.25

PnL

-$2.66

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.22

Value

$74.88

PnL

-$2.34

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.46

Value

$61.55

PnL

-$128.91

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$32.04

Value

$32.22

PnL

+$0.18

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.11

Value

$22.11

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$19.39

Value

$17.28

PnL

-$2.11

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.