RKC Waalwijk vs. FC Den Bosch: Both Teams to Score

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$93.45

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 58.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$737.02

Total Shares1,037

Combined PnL+$15.45

No9 traders

Total Value$576.98

Total Shares1,681

Combined PnL+$78

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Basquetipster	Yesavg 68¢	$391.49	$403.05	+$11.57	16% 16-82 (98)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 31.9¢	$174.17	$226.45	+$52.28	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 69.7¢	$205.08	$208.97	+$3.89	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$96.31	$99.75	+$3.44	59% 717-490 (1207)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$50.66	$80.04	+$29.38	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$75	$75	+$0	53% 7137-6246 (13383)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 30.5¢	$59.24	$56.35	-$2.89	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$50	$50	+$0	37% 1063-1796 (2859)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$41.7	$40.31	-$1.39	55% 499-401 (900)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$30	$29	-$1	37% 991-1715 (2706)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$21.2	$21.2	-$0	47% 936-1036 (1972)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$21.26	$19.43	-$1.83	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$4.44	$4.44	+$0	36% 975-1701 (2676)

Basquetipster

Yes

Invested

$391.49

Value

$403.05

PnL

+$11.57

Record

16%

16-82 (98)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$174.17

Value

$226.45

PnL

+$52.28

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$205.08

Value

$208.97

PnL

+$3.89

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$96.31

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$3.44

Record

59%

717-490 (1207)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$50.66

Value

$80.04

PnL

+$29.38

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$75

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7137-6246 (13383)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$59.24

Value

$56.35

PnL

-$2.89

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1063-1796 (2859)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.7

Value

$40.31

PnL

-$1.39

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$29

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$21.26

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$1.83

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.