Vitesse Arnhem vs. De Graafschap: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.7K
-$222.15
72.6¢ → 51¢
-30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 74.6¢ | $979.16 | $669.79 | -$309.38 | 50% 32573-32704 (65277) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 24.9¢ | $298.18 | $562.86 | +$264.68 | 53% 2990-2610 (5600) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 74.3¢ | $483.16 | $336.3 | -$146.85 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
LR lryyy | Underavg 58¢ | $149.66 | $131.63 | -$18.03 | 48% 39776-42703 (82479) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $39.28 | $26.71 | -$12.57 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
Invested
$979.16
Value
$669.79
PnL
-$309.38
Record
50%
32573-32704 (65277)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$298.18
Value
$562.86
PnL
+$264.68
Record
53%
2990-2610 (5600)
Invested
$483.16
Value
$336.3
PnL
-$146.85
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$149.66
Value
$131.63
PnL
-$18.03
Record
48%
39776-42703 (82479)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$26.71
PnL
-$12.57
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.