Spread: De Graafschap (-2.5)

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vitesse Arnhem (17%) · Vitesse Arnhem at 61¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

De Graafschap39¢Vitesse Arnhem61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitesse Arnhem

Consensus Traders

Vitesse Arnhem 17%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$362.09

Research grade

NeutralVitesse Arnhem at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitesse Arnhem

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

De Graafschap39%

Vitesse Arnhem61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitesse Arnhem1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,663

Combined PnL-$545.43

De Graafschap5 traders

Total Value$234.94

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$183.34

Vitesse Arnhem — 17%De Graafschap — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Vitesse Arnhem. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitesse Arnhem 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDe Graafschap 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDe Graafschap 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000De Graafschap 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Vitesse Arnhemavg 94.9¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$545.43	50% 33004-33062 (66066)
E4 e46m3CTR	De Graafschapavg 5.5¢	$22.34	$134.17	+$111.83	62% 35889-22321 (58210)
FL FlaznorpCTR	De Graafschapavg 4.5¢	$167.11	$65.01	+$57.49	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	De Graafschapavg 26¢	$17.14	$25.64	+$8.5	47% 116-132 (248)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100	De Graafschapavg 13.1¢	$2.09	$6.22	+$4.13	77% 141-43 (184)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR<$100	De Graafschapavg 25¢	$2.51	$3.91	+$1.4	54% 119-101 (220)

GoalLineGhost

Vitesse Arnhem

Invested

$1,663.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$545.43

Record

50%

33004-33062 (66066)

e46m3CTR

De Graafschap

Invested

$22.34

Value

$134.17

PnL

+$111.83

Record

62%

35889-22321 (58210)

FlaznorpCTR

De Graafschap

Invested

$167.11

Value

$65.01

PnL

+$57.49

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

De Graafschap

Invested

$17.14

Value

$25.64

PnL

+$8.5

Record

47%

116-132 (248)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100

De Graafschap

Invested

$2.09

Value

$6.22

PnL

+$4.13

Record

77%

141-43 (184)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR<$100

De Graafschap

Invested

$2.51

Value

$3.91

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

119-101 (220)

Research grade

NeutralVitesse Arnhem at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vitesse Arnhem

1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Vitesse Arnhem. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVitesse Arnhem 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDe Graafschap 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDe Graafschap 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000De Graafschap 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitesse Arnhem wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.8%

60.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.