Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will VVV Venlo win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 42¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$0.91

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 41.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,329

Combined PnL+$0.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$142.39

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$0.45

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 40.3¢	$937.47	$942.81	+$5.34	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 41¢	$152.01	$150.16	-$1.85	36% 950-1657 (2607)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$83.48	$84.88	+$1.39	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$57.76	$57.76	-$0	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$58.45	$57.51	-$0.94	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$51.66	$51.54	-$0.13	31% 343-780 (1123)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$51.05	$50.43	-$0.62	37% 977-1669 (2646)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$49.34	$48.74	-$0.6	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$26.4	$25.08	-$1.32	55% 474-384 (858)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$16.81	$16.61	-$0.2	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$11.98	$11.83	-$0.15	37% 968-1674 (2642)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$937.47

Value

$942.81

PnL

+$5.34

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$152.01

Value

$150.16

PnL

-$1.85

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.48

Value

$84.88

PnL

+$1.39

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$57.76

Value

$57.76

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.45

Value

$57.51

PnL

-$0.94

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$51.66

Value

$51.54

PnL

-$0.13

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$51.05

Value

$50.43

PnL

-$0.62

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$49.34

Value

$48.74

PnL

-$0.6

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$25.08

PnL

-$1.32

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$16.81

Value

$16.61

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$11.98

Value

$11.83

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.