Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

VVV Venlo vs. FC Eindhoven: O/U 2.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 42¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$511.25

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 41.5¢

-33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,493

Combined PnL+$588.58

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,926

Combined PnL-$77.33

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Underavg 40.5¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$450.76	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
95 95deCTR	Overavg 59¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$15	55% 12-10 (22)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 70.1¢	$628.97	$533.49	-$95.48	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LI Limousin	Underavg 30.5¢	$168.77	$251.81	+$83.04	36% 979-1704 (2683)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 31¢	$53.3	$91.84	+$38.54	37% 996-1715 (2711)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 28¢	$31.31	$48.08	+$16.77	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 32¢	$48.44	$45.42	-$3.03	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 58.8¢	$23.24	$26.87	+$3.63	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 40.9¢	$20.23	$22.74	+$2.5	47% 936-1037 (1973)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 69¢	$3.45	$2.97	-$0.48	53% 7148-6248 (13396)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,397.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$450.76

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

95deCTR

Over

Invested

$1,770

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

12-10 (22)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$628.97

Value

$533.49

PnL

-$95.48

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$168.77

Value

$251.81

PnL

+$83.04

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$53.3

Value

$91.84

PnL

+$38.54

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$31.31

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$16.77

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$48.44

Value

$45.42

PnL

-$3.03

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.24

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$3.63

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$20.23

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$2.5

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.48

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.