VVV Venlo vs. FC Eindhoven: O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$609.21

Smart Money Entry

27.4¢ → 52¢

+90% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,586

Combined PnL+$587.21

Over3 traders

Total Value$589.98

Total Shares834

Combined PnL+$22

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 66.3¢	$814.47	$944.94	+$130.47	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.3¢	$705.96	$548.22	-$157.75
└ Under leg	Underavg 13.3¢	$108.51	$396.72	+$288.22
VE Venusian	Underavg 31.8¢	$348.58	$558.7	+$210.12	37% 996-1715 (2711)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 66.6¢	$513.88	$532.31	+$18.43	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LI Limousin	Underavg 26.2¢	$197.67	$373.68	+$176.01	36% 979-1704 (2683)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 24.2¢	$253.25	$293.06	+$39.81	36% 481-851 (1332)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 29¢	$131.86	$225.38	+$93.52	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
RN1<$100	Underavg 20.6¢	$29.04	$69.12	+$40.08	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 87¢	$52.2	$55.8	+$3.6	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 22.1¢	$20.42	$48.08	+$27.66	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 87¢	$1.9	$1.87	-$0.03	46% 2762-3273 (6035)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$814.47

Value

$944.94

PnL

+$130.47

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

Both legs:

Over$705.9666.3¢-$157.75

Under$108.5113.3¢+$288.22

Venusian

Under

Invested

$348.58

Value

$558.7

PnL

+$210.12

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$513.88

Value

$532.31

PnL

+$18.43

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$197.67

Value

$373.68

PnL

+$176.01

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$253.25

Value

$293.06

PnL

+$39.81

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$131.86

Value

$225.38

PnL

+$93.52

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$29.04

Value

$69.12

PnL

+$40.08

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.2

Value

$55.8

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$20.42

Value

$48.08

PnL

+$27.66

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.