Spread: Roda JC Kerkrade (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FC Volendam (33%) · FC Volendam at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Roda JC Kerkrade2¢FC Volendam98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Volendam

Consensus Traders

FC Volendam 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$166.94

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 98.5¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Volendam at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Volendam

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Roda JC Kerkrade2%

FC Volendam99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Volendam3 traders

Total Value$906.05

Total Shares967

Combined PnL+$64.69

Roda JC Kerkrade6 traders

Total Value$232.14

Total Shares906

Combined PnL+$102.25

FC Volendam — 33%Roda JC Kerkrade — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on FC Volendam. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRoda JC Kerkrade 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Roda JC Kerkrade 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	FC Volendamavg 86.4¢	$751.22	$812.48	+$61.26	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 13.4¢	$102.65	$206.97	+$104.32	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
RN1<$100	FC Volendamavg 94.6¢	$80.06	$80.65	+$0.59	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 13¢	$9.02	$18.74	+$9.72	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	FC Volendamavg 73¢	$10.08	$12.92	+$2.83	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 27¢	$12.64	$3.72	-$8.92	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.35	+$0.15	36% 979-1704 (2683)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 24¢	$3.12	$1.03	-$2.09	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Roda JC Kerkradeavg 25¢	$1.25	$0.33	-$0.93	37% 996-1715 (2711)

GoalLineGhost

FC Volendam

Invested

$751.22

Value

$812.48

PnL

+$61.26

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

FlaznorpCTR

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$102.65

Value

$206.97

PnL

+$104.32

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

RN1<$100

FC Volendam

Invested

$80.06

Value

$80.65

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

sentrioCTR<$100

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$9.02

Value

$18.74

PnL

+$9.72

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

topdogbigboi<$100

FC Volendam

Invested

$10.08

Value

$12.92

PnL

+$2.83

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$12.64

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$8.92

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

LimousinCTR<$100

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$3.12

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$2.09

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

VenusianCTR<$100

Roda JC Kerkrade

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.93

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralFC Volendam at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FC Volendam

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on FC Volendam. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRoda JC Kerkrade 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Roda JC Kerkrade 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Volendam wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.